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  Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century
  2018 assessment for 201 countries : executive summary

  In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership for the establishment of a joint Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarizes the f...

  In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership for the establishment of a joint Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarizes the first results published by CEPAM in 2018.

  • Published: 2018-10-11
  • Corporate Author(s): Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
  • Subject: demographic analysis, demography, economic and social cohesion, economic growth, medium-term forecast, population ageing, population forecast, population of working age, population policy, population statistics, research report
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  The 2018 ageing report
  Economic & budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2016-2070)

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better monitored and safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate ...

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better monitored and safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to produce a new set of long-term budgetary projections by 2018, on the basis of new population projections to be provided by Eurostat. The EPC and the Commission services (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs – DG ECFIN) agreed on a work programme with broad arrangements to organise the budgetary projections and reach an agreement on its assumptions and methodologies to discharge this mandate (see the overview of the projection exercise for details). The long-term projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and as the people in the EU are expected to live longer in the future. Hence, the projections are helpful in highlighting the immediate and future policy challenges for governments posed by projected demographic trends. The report provides a very rich set of information at the individual country level which covers a long time-span (until 2070), compiled in a comparable and transparent manner. The projections feed into a variety of policy debates and processes at EU level, including the overarching Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In particular, they are used in the context of the European Semester so as to identify policy challenges, among others in setting the medium-term budgetary objectives (MTOs), in the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances carried out as part of the Stability and Growth Pact, and in the analysis on the impact of ageing populations on the labour market and potential economic growth.

  • Published: 2018-07-23
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: demographic analysis, demography, economic analysis, economic forecasting, government policy, long-term forecast, population ageing, population dynamics, population forecast, population growth, report
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  Economic consequences of zero international migration in the EU
  An assessment for Europe based on the Eurostat population projections

  Without international migration the EU28 population by 2060 would be reduced by 76 million people, with a higher median age. This study explores how much EU28 and members states long-term economic growth would be affected in case there would not be international migration to the EU28 countries f...

  Without international migration the EU28 population by 2060 would be reduced by 76 million people, with a higher median age. This study explores how much EU28 and members states long-term economic growth would be affected in case there would not be international migration to the EU28 countries from now to the year 2060.

  • Published: 2018-06-08
  • Corporate Author(s): Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
  • Subject: economic consequence, economic growth, EU Member State, gross domestic product, immigration, population ageing, population forecast, population statistics, research report, work productivity, working population
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  The 2018 ageing report
  Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges to fiscal sustainability, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave...

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges to fiscal sustainability, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to produce a new set of long-term budgetary projections by 2018, on the basis of new population projections to be provided by Eurostat. The EPC and the Commission services (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs - DG ECFIN) agreed on a work programme with broad arrangements to organise the budgetary projections and reach an agreement on its assumptions and methodologies to discharge this mandate (see the overview of the projection exercise for details). This report provides a description of the underlying macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and also unemployment benefits (for the sake of completeness) will be calculated and presented in the sixth Ageing Report to the ECOFIN Council in spring 2018. The long-term projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and as the EU population continues to extend its life span in the future. Hence, the projections are helpful in highlighting the immediate and future policy challenges for governments posed by demographic trends. The report provides a very rich set of information at the individual country level, compiled in a comparable manner. Comparable and reliable underlying projections are crucial since they cover a long time-span (until 2070). The projections feed into a variety of policy debates and processes at EU level, including the overarching Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In particular, they are used in the context of the European Semester so as to identify policy challenges, including in setting the mediumterm budgetary objectives (MTOs), in the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances carried out as part of the Stability and Growth Pact, and additionally in the analysis on the impact of ageing populations on the labour market and potential economic growth.

  • Published: 2018-06-05
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: economic forecasting, EU expenditure, EU Member State, health expenditure, labour force, long-term forecast, macroeconomics, non-working population, pension scheme, population ageing, population forecast, public finance, report, unemployment
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  Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century
  2018 assessment for 201 countries

  This volume presents different scenarios of future population and human capital trends in 201 countries of the world to the end of this century to inform the assessment of possible future migration patterns into the EU, as currently carried out by the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migrat...

  This volume presents different scenarios of future population and human capital trends in 201 countries of the world to the end of this century to inform the assessment of possible future migration patterns into the EU, as currently carried out by the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) Project (collaboration between JRC and IIASA). The study also goes beyond the conventional population projections, which only consider age and sex structures, by taking a multi-dimensional approach through adding educational attainment for all countries and also labour force participation for EU member states. The definition of scenarios in this study follows the narratives of the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) which are widely used in the global change research community. The Medium scenario (SSP2) foresees that fertility and mortality follow a medium pathway, which can be seen as most likely from today’s perspective. The scenario of Rapid Development (SSP1) assumes rapid increases in life expectancy, a faster fertility decline in high fertility countries and an education expansion path that follows the education goals given by the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). The Stalled Development scenario (SSP3) presents a divided world, foreseeing a stall in educational expansion in developing countries as well as continued high fertility and high mortality. Moreover, these scenarios also serve policy considerations in many other fields, ranging from the economic consequences of population ageing to development priorities in Africa, global population and environment interactions. This volume also serves as an update of the scenarios presented in the 2014 Oxford University Press book entitled ‘World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century’ (Lutz et al 2014), which includes the most comprehensive summary of different possible scientific arguments underlying the assumptions of future fertility, mortality, migration and education trends in different parts of the world with input from over 550 population experts. This new 2018 assessment also has a new 2015 baseline and adjusts the near term (up to 2030) fertility and mortality assumptions accordingly, while maintaining the long term assumptions as justified in the 2014 book. In terms of migration, it combines three rough migration assumptions – zero migration, constant rates as observed over the past 60 years and double those rates – with medium fertility and mortality trends to illustrate the sensitivity of longer term population trends to alternative migration intensities.

  • Published: 2018-04-19
  • Corporate Author(s): Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
  • Subject: demographic analysis, demography, economic and social cohesion, economic growth, medium-term forecast, population ageing, population forecast, population of working age, population policy, population statistics, research report
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  On secular stagnation and low interest rates
  Demography matters

  Nominal and real interest rates in advanced economies have been decreasing since the mid-1980s and reached historical low levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Understanding why interest rates have fallen is essential for both monetary policy and financial stability. This paper...

  Nominal and real interest rates in advanced economies have been decreasing since the mid-1980s and reached historical low levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Understanding why interest rates have fallen is essential for both monetary policy and financial stability. This paper fo- cuses on one of the factors that have been put forward in the literature within the secular stagnation view: adverse demographic developments. The main conclusion that we draw from our empirical, panel equation system-based assessment is that these developments have exerted downward pressures on real short- and long-term interest rates in the euro area over the past decade. Moreover, building on the European Commission projections for dependency ratios until 2025, we illustrate that the foreseen structural change in terms of age structure of the population may dampen economic growth and continue exerting downward pressure on real interest rates also in the future.

  • Published: 2017-08-08
  • Corporate Author(s): European Central Bank
  • Subject: econometrics, economic recession, euro area, interest, monetary policy, population forecast
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  The impact of demographic change on European regions
  

  The core long-term structural demographic change in Europe is ageing: the current ratio of working age population to old dependent population below 4 to 1 will, according to Eurostat projections, be replaced by a ratio of 2 to 1 by 2050. Demographic change in individual Local and Regional Author...

  The core long-term structural demographic change in Europe is ageing: the current ratio of working age population to old dependent population below 4 to 1 will, according to Eurostat projections, be replaced by a ratio of 2 to 1 by 2050. Demographic change in individual Local and Regional Authorities (LRAs) will depend on their capacity to attract the working-age population. However, concentrations of seniors in specific localities and regions do not necessarily constitute a challenge or handicap, insofar as this population’s income from retirement schemes provides the basis for the development of a wide range of economic activities. The observation of demographic trends at the NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels between 2000 and 2014 reveals demographic decline across large parts of Eastern Europe, and especially in the Baltic States, in Bulgaria and Romania, eastern German Länder, Slovakia and Croatia. In most of these areas, ‘islands’ of demographic growth can be observed around capital and metropolitan cities. Western European regions experience more limited demographic decline observable at the regional level: southern Italy, eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, inner parts of France and northern Scandinavia are the main areas concerned. The overall picture can then be synthesised of east-west polarisation on the one hand, and an axis of population loss or stagnation running from eastern Finland and the Baltic States, through Germany and France to Portugal.

  • Published: 2016-04-12
  • Corporate Author(s): European Committee of the Regions ; Spatial Foresight ; t33 ; ÖIR
  • Subject: demographic analysis, demography, EU regional policy, labour market, local authority, migration policy, population ageing, population forecast, regional authority, report, social well-being
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  People in the EU
  Who are we and how do we live? : 2015 edition

  'People in the EU: who are we and how do we live?' draws on the results of the population and housing census that was conducted across the Member States of the European Union (EU) and the countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in 2011. In addition, the publication presents a wid...

  'People in the EU: who are we and how do we live?' draws on the results of the population and housing census that was conducted across the Member States of the European Union (EU) and the countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in 2011. In addition, the publication presents a wide range of official social statistics from Eurostat databases in order to paint a detailed picture of the population, households and housing in the EU. A number of topics are covered in this publication, ranging from an overview of the demographic situation in the EU and its Member States, to a portrait of EU households and family structures, geographic mobility in the EU or the increasing ageing of our societies. 'People in the EU: who are we and how do we live?' concludes with a look at the future demographic challenges potentially facing the EU in the coming years.

  • Published: 2015-11-23
  • Corporate Author(s): Eurostat (European Commission)
  • Subject: composition of the population, demographic analysis, EFTA countries, EU Member State, EU national, EU statistics, family, geographical mobility, household, population ageing, population census, population dynamics, population forecast, population statistics
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  The 2015 ageing report
  Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060)

  This is the fifth report with long-term projections of the budgetary impact of population ageing. It covers the 28 EU Member States and Norway over the period 2013–2060....

  This is the fifth report with long-term projections of the budgetary impact of population ageing. It covers the 28 EU Member States and Norway over the period 2013–2060.

  • Published: 2015-10-26
  • Corporate Author(s): CPE ; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: economic forecasting, EU expenditure, EU Member State, health expenditure, labour force, long-term forecast, macroeconomics, non-working population, Norway, pension scheme, population ageing, population forecast, public finance, report, unemployment
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  The 2015 ageing report
  Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies

  This report provides a description of the underlying macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these underlying assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, longterm car...

  This report provides a description of the underlying macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these underlying assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, longterm care, education and unemployment benefits will be calculated and presented to the ECOFIN Council in spring 2015 in the fifth Ageing Report.

  • Published: 2015-01-29
  • Corporate Author(s): CPE ; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: economic forecasting, EU expenditure, EU Member State, health expenditure, labour force, long-term forecast, macroeconomics, non-working population, pension scheme, population ageing, population forecast, public finance, report, unemployment