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• REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2019-2023)

  • Published: 2018-10-10
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Budget (European Commission) ; European Commission
  • Subject: budget policy, budgetary resources, EU budget, EU expenditure, long-term forecast, Member States' contribution, multiannual financial framework, own resources
• 

  A ‘new modesty’?
  Level shifts in survey data and the decreasing trend of ‘normal’ growth

  While the current level of the Economic Sentiment Indicator, which is well above its long-term average, is compatible with expanding economic activity, it has been associated with lower growth rates than those implied in the pre-recession period. Departing from the idea that the relationship bet...

  While the current level of the Economic Sentiment Indicator, which is well above its long-term average, is compatible with expanding economic activity, it has been associated with lower growth rates than those implied in the pre-recession period. Departing from the idea that the relationship between qualitative survey (‘soft’) and quantitative (‘hard’) data might have changed during the Great Recession due to a 'new modesty' of survey respondents, this paper goes one step further and examines to what extent this link might be constantly moving over longer time periods. Using rolling regressions and time-varying parameter models for the euro area, the paper shows that the growth rates typically implied by given survey results did not only fall during the Great recession, but already decreased rather systematically for close to 20 years before the crisis, i.e. since around 1990. This is true for the overall economy (measured by GDP growth), but also industrial production, construction production, and households consumption. Country-specific results for the GDP of the four largest euro-area economies are also presented. Furthermore, the paper suggests that business and consumer survey results can be used, beyond their usual short-term forecasting purposes, to gauge changes in long-term or potential growth. While the results should be interpreted as preliminary and experimental, they might be useful as a contribution to the assessment of post-crisis potential growth, not least since they are less subject to revisions than conventional methods based on production functions.

  • Published: 2018-10-18
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: consumer survey, data collection, economic analysis, economic cycle, economic fluctuation, economic growth, economic model, economic recession, economic survey, euro area, long-term forecast
• 

  The 2018 ageing report
  Economic & budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2016-2070)

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better monitored and safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate ...

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better monitored and safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to produce a new set of long-term budgetary projections by 2018, on the basis of new population projections to be provided by Eurostat. The EPC and the Commission services (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs – DG ECFIN) agreed on a work programme with broad arrangements to organise the budgetary projections and reach an agreement on its assumptions and methodologies to discharge this mandate (see the overview of the projection exercise for details). The long-term projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and as the people in the EU are expected to live longer in the future. Hence, the projections are helpful in highlighting the immediate and future policy challenges for governments posed by projected demographic trends. The report provides a very rich set of information at the individual country level which covers a long time-span (until 2070), compiled in a comparable and transparent manner. The projections feed into a variety of policy debates and processes at EU level, including the overarching Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In particular, they are used in the context of the European Semester so as to identify policy challenges, among others in setting the medium-term budgetary objectives (MTOs), in the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances carried out as part of the Stability and Growth Pact, and in the analysis on the impact of ageing populations on the labour market and potential economic growth.

  • Published: 2018-07-23
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: demographic analysis, demography, economic analysis, economic forecasting, government policy, long-term forecast, population ageing, population dynamics, population forecast, population growth, report
• 

  The 2018 ageing report
  Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges to fiscal sustainability, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave...

  The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges to fiscal sustainability, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to produce a new set of long-term budgetary projections by 2018, on the basis of new population projections to be provided by Eurostat. The EPC and the Commission services (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs - DG ECFIN) agreed on a work programme with broad arrangements to organise the budgetary projections and reach an agreement on its assumptions and methodologies to discharge this mandate (see the overview of the projection exercise for details). This report provides a description of the underlying macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and also unemployment benefits (for the sake of completeness) will be calculated and presented in the sixth Ageing Report to the ECOFIN Council in spring 2018. The long-term projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and as the EU population continues to extend its life span in the future. Hence, the projections are helpful in highlighting the immediate and future policy challenges for governments posed by demographic trends. The report provides a very rich set of information at the individual country level, compiled in a comparable manner. Comparable and reliable underlying projections are crucial since they cover a long time-span (until 2070). The projections feed into a variety of policy debates and processes at EU level, including the overarching Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In particular, they are used in the context of the European Semester so as to identify policy challenges, including in setting the mediumterm budgetary objectives (MTOs), in the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances carried out as part of the Stability and Growth Pact, and additionally in the analysis on the impact of ageing populations on the labour market and potential economic growth.

  • Published: 2018-06-05
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (European Commission)
  • Subject: economic forecasting, EU expenditure, EU Member State, health expenditure, labour force, long-term forecast, macroeconomics, non-working population, pension scheme, population ageing, population forecast, public finance, report, unemployment
• 

  Dialogues on food
  Food futuring tours at the
  expo2015

  • Published: 2018-04-24
  • Corporate Author(s): Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
  • Subject: cultural event, ecological balance, food consumption, food industry, food policy, food production, food technology, foodstuff, long-term forecast
• 

  EU invests in the planet
  Ten initiatives for a modern and clean economy : the Juncker Commission's contribution to the One Planet Summit, Paris, 12 December 2017

  Latest edition.

  'We would need at least four planets to maintain our present way of life, production and consumption. But we only have one. So now is the time for us all to come together and act for our planet. Tomorrow will be too late.' Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission....

  'We would need at least four planets to maintain our present way of life, production and consumption. But we only have one. So now is the time for us all to come together and act for our planet. Tomorrow will be too late.' Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission.

  • Published: 2018-03-02
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Communication (European Commission)
  • Subject: adaptation to climate change, clean technology, climate change policy, economic growth, environmental protection, EU policy, international conference, long-term forecast, new technology, sectoral planning
• 

  EU invests in the planet
  Ten initiatives for a modern and clean economy : the Juncker Commission's contribution to the One Planet Summit, Paris, 12 December 2017

  There is a newer edition of this publication

  'We would need at least four planets to maintain our present way of life, production and consumption. But we only have one. So now is the time for us all to come together and act for our planet. Tomorrow will be too late.' Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission....

  'We would need at least four planets to maintain our present way of life, production and consumption. But we only have one. So now is the time for us all to come together and act for our planet. Tomorrow will be too late.' Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission.

  • Published: 2017-12-15
  • Corporate Author(s): Directorate-General for Communication (European Commission)
  • Subject: adaptation to climate change, clean technology, climate change policy, economic growth, environmental protection, EU policy, international conference, long-term forecast, new technology, sectoral planning
• 

  Resilience
  The 2nd International Workshop on Modelling of Physical, Economic and Social Systems for Resilience Assessment : 14-16 December 2017, Ispra

  The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in close collaboration with NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology, US Department of Commerce) and Colorado State University organised the 2nd International Workshop on Modelling of Physical, Economic and Social Systems for Resil...

  The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in close collaboration with NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology, US Department of Commerce) and Colorado State University organised the 2nd International Workshop on Modelling of Physical, Economic and Social Systems for Resilience Assessment on 14-16 December 2017. Interest in resilience has been rising rapidly during the last 20 years, both among policy makers and academia, as a response to increasing concern about the potential effect of shocks to individuals, civil infrastructure, regions, countries and social, economic and political institutions. The objective of the workshop was to bring together the scientific community and policy makers towards developing better policies and practices incorporating the element of resilience in various fields.

  • Published: 2017-12-14
  • Corporate Author(s): Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
  • Subject: anti-crisis plan, assessment, economic model, hazard science, international conference, long-term forecast, sectoral planning
• 

  Sustainable development in the European Union
  Overview of progress towards the SDGs in an EU context : 2017 edition

  Sustainable development has been at the heart of European policy for a long time, firmly anchored in the European Treaties. The 2030 agenda for sustainable development and its 17 sustainable development SDGs adopted by the UN General Assembly in September 2015, gives a new impetus to global effo...

  Sustainable development has been at the heart of European policy for a long time, firmly anchored in the European Treaties. The 2030 agenda for sustainable development and its 17 sustainable development SDGs adopted by the UN General Assembly in September 2015, gives a new impetus to global efforts to achieve sustainable development. The EU is committed to playing an active role to maximise progress towards the SDGs, as outlined in its communication (COM (2016) 739), 'Next steps for a sustainable European future'. Regular monitoring of progress towards the SDGs in an EU context is essential for this purpose.

  • Published: 2017-11-17
  • Corporate Author(s): Eurostat (European Commission)
  • Subject: development potential, economic indicator, long-term forecast, sustainable development
• 

  African futures
  Horizon 2025

  It is clear that in recent years Africa has undergone significant economic, socio-political and technological transformations, a process which is likely to accelerate over the coming decades. While it would be an overstatement to proclaim that the future will be African, there are strong indicat...

  It is clear that in recent years Africa has undergone significant economic, socio-political and technological transformations, a process which is likely to accelerate over the coming decades. While it would be an overstatement to proclaim that the future will be African, there are strong indications that the global importance of the continent is set to rise – and not only as a source of risk factors spilling over from poverty and instability. The objective of this report – the outcome of a consultative project conducted in collaboration with external experts and research institutes – is to reflect on the major trends that will orient Africa’s future looking ahead towards 2025, and to identify the factors which are likely to have the most far-reaching impact on Africa’s economic, political and security trajectory.

  • Published: 2017-10-31
  • Corporate Author(s): European Union Institute for Security Studies (EU body or agency)
  • Subject: Africa, change of political system, development potential, economic forecasting, geopolitics, long-term forecast, obstacle to development, regional development, social change