In general, crop growth conditions throughout Europe are beneficial. This is reflected in our forecasts, which at EU-28 level are above average of the last 5 years. However, two regions with negative conditions impacting crop development are identified in Spain (Andalucia) and Italy (Puglia), mainly due to water scarcity. In general, low rates of precipitation (less than 50 % of the long-term average) were observed in eastern Spain, most of Italy, the western Balkan Peninsula, Hungary, southern Slovakia, and some regions of the Czech Republic and southern Turkey. South-western Europe, the Maghreb countries and northern Russia experienced signifi-cantly warmer-than-usual weather conditions, while tem-peratures in Turkey and southern Russia remained below the long-term average.
Issued: 22 May 2015
In general, crop growth conditions throughout Europe are beneficial. However, two regions with negative conditions impacting crop development can be singled out. In Spain, during the period under review, a substantial lack of rain was registered coupled with temperatures significantly above the seasonal ones. Nevertheless, winter crops in northern Spain are still benefiting from the residual soil moisture. In Anda-lucia, however, where the cycle is more advanced and crops are already in grain-filling, dry conditions are affecting stor-age-organ formation reducing the yield expectations. The main durum wheat-producing region of Italy, Puglia, is also affected by water scarcity. With more than 1 month without relevant precipitation, the crops, in grain-filling stage, started to suffer.
A significant rain surplus is recorded for the central Alps and towards the southern regions of Germany (Bayern); here no significant impact is registered. The same situation is found in Scotland (United Kingdom) and in Ireland. In Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Estonia the rain of late April and May did not cause any negative impact on winter and spring crops; nevertheless the weather forecast for the next week foresees more precip-itation that finally could negatively impact future crop stages. In the Maghreb countries, where crops are almost at the end of their cycle, an early heat wave hit the crops in their late grain-filling or senescence stages causing modest impact from the yields perspective.
April started with a cold air intrusion into central and south-eastern Europe, with average daily air temperatures ranging from 2 to 5 °C below the long-term average. Frost events were detected in these regions, but absolute mini-mum daily temperatures remained above 5 °C and there-fore did not cause any severe frost-kill damage. By contrast, warmer-than-usual thermal conditions prevailed in the Brit-ish Isles, Spain, Portugal, north-western Africa, eastern Tur-key and northern Europe. During the second dekad of April, warmer-than-usual conditions prevailed in major parts of Europe, with the exception of the south-eastern Mediterranean, Turkey and most of Russia. The third dekad of April was characterised by warmer-than-seasonal weather in the west-ern Mediterranean areas and a large part of eastern Europe, with temperature anomalies reaching up to 4 °C above the long-term average. Turkey and northern Europe remained colder than usual, with air temperature anomalies as much as 4 °C below the long-term average. The first dekad of May was substantially warmer than seasonal in southern Europe. Temperature anomalies up to 6 °C above the long-term aver-age were recorded in the eastern part of the Iberian Penin-sula, Italy and the western Balkans. Maximum daily air temperatures reached above 30 °C in many areas of the Balkans, southern Italy, southern Spain and the Maghreb countries. In the second dekad of May, the warmer-than-usual weather persisted in the Maghreb countries, southern Europe and the very northern territories of Russia. Between 10 and 14 May, the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula experienced an exceptional heat wave, with daily maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding 35 °C. Meanwhile Scandinavia, the surrounding areas of the Baltic Sea, Belarus, and Ukraine, as well as southern Russia and eastern Turkey, experienced a negative thermal anomaly. Considering the review period as a whole (1 April-20 May), the cumulated active temper-atures (Tbase = 0 °C) exceeded the long-term average for more than 50 growing degree days (°Cd) in Spain, Portugal, southern and western France, Italy, the western Balkans and the Maghreb countries. By contrast, a delay in crop develop-ment was recorded in Turkey, Belarus, most of Ukraine and the southern half of Russia. Winter wheat in the Mediterra-nean region was mainly in the flowering or grain-filling stage during the first and second dekads of May, when it may have been affected by heat stress in regions where maximum daily temperatures exceeded 30 °C
The first and second dekads of April were characterised by drier-than-usual weather conditions in western Europe, Italy, the western Balkans, and the western part of Turkey. By contrast, abundant rainfall was recorded in eastern Ukraine, southern Russia and the Baltic countries. Rainfall during the third dekad of April was more abundant in western Europe, as opposed to the first two dekads. Rainfall was especially plentiful in western and central France, the north-west-ern Iberian Peninsula, the Alps and northern Europe. Drier conditions continued in the western and northern Balkans and Hungary. Rainy weather continued in western and cen-tral France, the British Isles and northern Europe during the first dekad of May. In the second dekad of May, Scotland, the Alps, the northern Balkans, Finland, southern regions of the Scandinavian Peninsula, northern Ukraine, western and south-eastern Russia and eastern Turkey experienced sub-stantial (> 30 mm) precipitation.
Considering the review period as a whole, abundant rain-fall, reaching more than 50 % above the long-term aver-age, was recorded in western France, Ireland, Scotland, some Alpine regions, Scandinavia, eastern Ukraine and large areas of Russia. Abundant rainfall in these areas may have ham-pered the sowing of spring crops. A substantial rainfall defi-cit was present in the eastern Iberian Peninsula, Italy, the western and northern Balkans, Hungary, and south-western Turkey. The soil-moisture deficit is increasing, especially in the northern Balkans and Hungary, with the effect of limiting the growth of winter and spring crops.
Biomass production from February in the Dehesa area between Spain and Portugal has been close to the average, constrained by the scarcity of precipitation during spring. In northern Spain, by contrast, rainfall since the beginning of the season has been abundant (especially in January and Feb-ruary), and higher-than-usual temperatures since mid-March led to the rapid growth of grasslands. The outlook for these northern areas is positive.
Highly favourable conditions have also been observed in Italy. Grasslands in the southern half of the country and Sardegna have benefited from a very humid period from mid-January to March and warmer-than-usual conditions since April. In north-ern areas, fodder maize has already emerged, and soil mois-ture levels are quite high as rainfall has been abundant since the start of the season, which will permit adequate growth in these initial stages of development.
Weather conditions have also been favourable for grasslands in France. Temperatures have been higher than usual, espe-cially in April and May, boosting biomass formation in central and north-western regions. Precipitation during the start of the season was close to the long-term average, with abun-dant rainfall at the end of April, depicting a positive outlook for biomass production at the beginning of summer. In the Benelux region, leaf area formation in grasslands is also above that of an average year, favoured by the higher-than-usual temperatures in mid-April.
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Biomass formation levels in Germany are well above the long-term average, mainly thanks to a favourable start to the season, with higher-than-usual temperatures in February leading to the rapid development of grasslands. Cumulated precipitation levels in the 3 previous months were close to the average in all the main producing areas, which indicates a good outlook for biomass production in the coming months. The situation is especially favourable in the southern region of Bayern, where high temperatures and abundant rainfall in the second half of April resulted in unusually high biomass production levels at the beginning of May.
Similarly favourable conditions have been observed in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria, where the leaf area for-mation in grasslands is greatly above that of an average year as a consequence of the warm conditions from mid-February onwards.
Milder-than-usual weather conditions in the second half of February and March promoted the early development of pas-tures in Denmark. Daily temperatures during that period were about 3-4 °C above the long-term average, triggering the vegetative growth phase of grasslands. As a consequence, biomass formation levels are currently above average, and the rainfall registered in the previous weeks will help to maintain high growth rates in the coming months.
In northern Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, temperatures above the long-term average in February and March led to the early melting of the snow cover and start of the vegetative growth of grasslands. In these initial stages of development, biomass production rates are substantially higher than in an average year. Cumulated precipitation over the past 2 months is sufficient to support adequate growth in May and June. Sim-ilar conditions have been observed in Finland and Sweden.
The start of the growing season in Romania was affected by extremely high precipitation levels from December onwards, especially in southern and eastern regions. Temperatures were slightly above seasonal values, favouring the earlier-than-usual development of grasslands. Biomass production levels are cur-rently substantially above those of an average year, and soil moisture levels are high, practically guaranteeing the good growth of pastures in the coming months.
The start to the season was also positive in Hungary, with unusually high temperatures in January and the second half of February leading to the early vegetative growth of grass-lands. Although the winter was quite humid, precipitation since mid-February has been sparse. If the dry conditions persist, biomass production may be constrained in June.